Cite as: 581 U. S. ____ (2017)
3
Syllabus
at ___, subordinating other districting criteria. Faced with this body
of evidence, the District Court did not clearly err in finding that race
predominated in drawing District 1; indeed, it could hardly have concluded anything but. Pp. 10–12.
(b) North Carolina’s use of race as the predominant factor in designing District 1 does not withstand strict scrutiny. The State argues that it had good reasons to believe that it had to draw a majority-minority district to avoid liability for vote dilution under §2 of the
VRA. Thornburg v. Gingles, 478 U. S. 30, identifies three threshold
conditions for proving such a vote-dilution claim: (1) A “minority
group” must be “sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a majority” in some reasonably configured legislative district,
id., at 50; (2) the minority group must be “politically cohesive,” id., at
51; and (3) a district’s white majority must “vote[ ] sufficiently as a
bloc” to usually “defeat the minority’s preferred candidate,” ibid. If a
State has good reason to think that all three of these conditions are
met, then so too it has good reason to believe that §2 requires drawing a majority-minority district. But if not, then not.
Here, electoral history provided no evidence that a §2 plaintiff
could demonstrate the third Gingles prerequisite. For nearly 20
years before the new plan’s adoption, African-Americans made up
less than a majority of District 1’s voters, but their preferred candidates scored consistent victories. District 1 thus functioned as a
“crossover” district, in which members of the majority help a “large
enough” minority to elect its candidate of choice. Bartlett v. Strickland, 556 U. S. 1, 13 (plurality opinion). So experience gave the State
no reason to think that the VRA required it to ramp up District 1’s
BVAP.
The State counters that because it needed to substantially increase
District 1’s population, the question facing the state mapmakers was
not whether the then-existing District 1 violated §2, but whether the
future District 1 would do so if drawn without regard to race. But
that reasoning, taken alone, cannot justify the State’s race-based redesign of the district. Most important, the State points to no meaningful legislative inquiry into the key issue it identifies: whether a
new, enlarged District 1, created without a focus on race, could lead
to §2 liability. To have a strong basis to conclude that §2 demands
race-based measures to augment a district’s BVAP, the State must
evaluate whether a plaintiff could establish the Gingles preconditions
in a new district created without those measures. Nothing in the legislative record here fits that description. And that is no accident:
The redistricters believed that this Court’s decision in Strickland
mandated a 50%-plus BVAP in District 1. They apparently reasoned
that if, as Strickland held, §2 does not require crossover districts (for