Nevertheless, the initial gambit was not heartening. In January 2020, the Russian government pushed COVID-19 disinformation among audiences in Eastern Europe, seeking to discredit the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)39 and Lithuania;40 experts believed the Russian authorities were behind false information that a U.S. NATO soldier in Lithuania tested positive for COVID-19. In March, pro-Russian news sources in the country also touted that the public health crisis was leading Lithuanian authorities to shut down pro-Russian media outlets.41 Russia is also suspected of pushing false narratives that seek to incite violence and exploit societal fault lines. In Ukraine, late February saw the spread of disinformation, allegedly from the Ukrainian Ministry of Health, about returning refugees having COVID-19, leading to a riot in the town of Novi Sanzhary that resulted in the injury of citizens and police.42 Belgium’s state security service (VSSE) has warned that extremist organizations in Belgium are leveraging disinformation and inflammatory rhetoric about the pandemic to turn populations against each other. The VSSE report points to conspiracy theories about COVID-19 spreading via social media that focus on anti-immigration and anti-Muslim rhetoric.43 The report goes on to say that these COVID-19 related disinformation campaigns were being orchestrated from Russia, aimed at “sow[ing] discord” with the aim of “debilitat[ing] the West” and that far-right groups “active throughout Europe were pumping pro-Russian content and disinformation into social media.”44 The tactics of China’s global influence operation also evolved as the pandemic spread. At first, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was engaging in disinformation campaigns about the origins and scale of COVID-19’s spread, mimicking Russian strategies of creating confusion and discord in the information space. This effort used diplomatic platforms, the Chinese government’s social media accounts and other media channels to push conspiracy theories and conflicting narratives.45 The assertions of a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson that U.S. military representatives brought COVID-19 to China was one widely publicized example.46 The CCP has also used more familiar tactics. “Chinese information operations typically aim to uphold a single immutable narrative that casts the Chinese Communist Party in a positive light. ... The goal isn’t to destabilize the information environment, but rather to make Beijing appear unassailably good.”47 Narratives have shifted to the superiority of China’s authoritarian system in enabling the successful containment of the problem48 as well as the medical aid that China is offering to other countries. China’s enormous force of state media and social media networks are amplifying this narrative, which is likely to be echoed by authoritarian rulers and parties in other countries to cast doubt on the democratic system of governance. Given the extent of China’s attempted interference in Taiwanese elections, one cannot rule out the possibility that the CCP might use COVID-19 disinformation in election contexts, especially in countries where China has a geopolitical interest.49 In addition, China’s economic and political power ensures that the CCP’s portrayal of itself as a global benefactor is finding a receptive audience in Europe and elsewhere, particularly given a perceived lack of U.S. leadership.50 Euroskeptic leaders in Hungary, Serbia and Italy have embraced Chinese aid and lavished high-profile praise on China for its provision of health supplies.51 In April, the New York Times reported that due to Chinese government pressure, the European Union revised its report on COVID-19 disinformation to be softer on China.52 At the time of this writing, however, the European Commission has reversed its stance, publicly naming China as a source of disinformation that undermines European democracy and the response to COVID-19.53 The United States government, most notably senior voices in the Trump administration, are also attempting to influence the global narrative to further geopolitical goals, branding COVID-19 as the “Chinese Virus” or “Wuhan Virus” in official statements and advancing the theory that the virus originated in a lab in Wuhan, despite highly inconclusive evidence.54 The rise of this rhetoric has caused opposition lawmakers and others to warn that hate crimes directed toward Asian Americans are likely to increase.55 -10- International Foundation for Electoral Systems