Cite as: 570 U. S. ____ (2013)
21
GINSBURG, J., dissenting
does not signal a constitutional violation, it is a factor that
increases the vulnerability of racial minorities to dis
criminatory changes in voting law. The reason is twofold.
First, racial polarization means that racial minorities are
at risk of being systematically outvoted and having their
interests underrepresented in legislatures. Second, “when
political preferences fall along racial lines, the natural
inclinations of incumbents and ruling parties to entrench
themselves have predictable racial effects. Under circum
stances of severe racial polarization, efforts to gain politi
cal advantage translate into race-specific disadvantages.”
Ansolabehere, Persily, & Stewart, Regional Differences
in Racial Polarization in the 2012 Presidential Election:
Implications for the Constitutionality of Section 5 of the
Voting Rights Act, 126 Harv. L. Rev. Forum 205, 209
(2013).
In other words, a governing political coalition has an
incentive to prevent changes in the existing balance of
voting power. When voting is racially polarized, efforts by
the ruling party to pursue that incentive “will inevitably
discriminate against a racial group.” Ibid. Just as build
ings in California have a greater need to be earthquake
proofed, places where there is greater racial polarization
in voting have a greater need for prophylactic measures to
prevent purposeful race discrimination. This point was
understood by Congress and is well recognized in the
academic literature. See 2006 Reauthorization §2(b)(3),
120 Stat. 577 (“The continued evidence of racially polar
ized voting in each of the jurisdictions covered by the
[preclearance requirement] demonstrates that racial and
language minorities remain politically vulnerable”); H. R.
Rep. No. 109–478, at 35; Davidson, The Recent Evolution
of Voting Rights Law Affecting Racial and Language
Minorities, in Quiet Revolution 21, 22.
The case for retaining a coverage formula that met
needs on the ground was therefore solid. Congress might