32
ALEXANDER v. SOUTH CAROLINA STATE CONFERENCE
OF THE NAACP
KAGAN, J., dissenting
the higher turnout of a presidential election, along with its
greater focus on individual candidates, makes it a poorer
measure of a district’s year-in, year-out partisan tilt. See
App. 135. The State’s own expert did not contest that view,
so the majority’s skepticism again finds no support in the
trial record. And even if 2020 data is better than 2018
data—it might be—what is better than either is both. That
is what the Challengers had: Ragusa’s study based on 2020
data and Liu’s based on 2018 data, each showing a racial
gerrymander.
Much the same thing is true as to a more obscure methodological issue the majority raises (again, needless to say,
sua sponte): whether statistical analysis should “operate[ ]
at the voter level” or the precinct level. Ante, at 27, n. 9.
Here, the majority cannot get its attack-line consistent.
First the majority claims that Ragusa’s testimony was
worse than the expert’s in Cooper because Ragusa’s relied
on “precinct-level analysis” rather than looking at individual voters. Ibid. But within a page the majority asserts
that Liu’s study was “highly unrealistic” because he
“treated each voter as an independent unit” rather than
considering “neighbors” together. Ante, at 27–28. So an expert challenging a gerrymander can’t win either way. But
put that aside; the key thing, once more, is that the Challengers had not one but two types of analysis working in
their favor. However a statistician looked at the data—
whether voter-level or precinct-level—he reached the same
conclusion: that the State’s mapmakers targeted Black voters.
And the State offered little by way of rebuttal. It, too, had
an expert witness. And that witness, Sean Trende, took a
couple of shots at Ragusa’s methods. See ECF Doc. 510, at
46–52. But he did not offer the most relevant kind of evidence—a counter-analysis showing that partisanship subsumed race in the design of District 1. Trende had access