18 ALEXANDER v. SOUTH CAROLINA STATE CONFERENCE OF THE NAACP Opinion of the Court preferences. Why would Roberts have used racial data— with the associated legal risks—as a proxy for partisan data when he had access to refined, sub-precinct-level political data that accounted for voter turnout and electoral preferences? The District Court provided no answer to this obvious question. 7 The Challengers look to plug this gap by arguing that Roberts must have used racial data because the political data he claimed to have used was blatantly unsatisfactory. For support, they cite the testimony of Dale Oldham, a political consultant who did not participate in drawing the Enacted Plan. Oldham testified that he believed the standard data South Carolina used for measuring partisanship is unreliable because it does not accurately reflect the partisan preferences of absentee voters. Oldham opined that a new type of composite data that first became available in 2020 does a better job in that regard. J. S. A. Supp. 417a– 418a, 420a. This criticism is entitled to little weight. One consultant’s opinion about the quality of South Carolina’s political data obviously does not settle the question whether the State’s political data was inferior. And in any event, the relevant question is not whether the State used the best available data but whether it is reasonable to infer that the mapmakers’ political data was so obviously flawed that they must have surreptitiously used racial data. Oldham’s testimony falls far short of establishing that the State cannot plausibly have believed that its own political data was —————— 7 The dissent argues that racial data is superior because black Democrats are more loyal to the party than white Democrats. Post, at 21–22. But whether or not this is true (and the dissent relies solely on the sayso of one witness), studies show that non-white voters turn out at a much lower rate than white voters. See Brennan Center for Justice, K. Morris & C. Grange, Large Racial Turnout Gap Persisted in 2020 Election (Aug. 6, 2021), https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/ large-racial-turnout-gap-persisted-2020-election.

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