28
ALEXANDER v. SOUTH CAROLINA STATE CONFERENCE
OF THE NAACP
KAGAN, J., dissenting
stronger predictor of whether it was removed” from District
1 “than its partisan composition.” Ibid.; see 649 F. Supp.
3d, at 192.
A second expert, Dr. Baodong Liu, reinforced Ragusa’s
conclusions about the significance of race, using a complementary methodology and data set. Liu evaluated the different likelihoods that White Democrats and Black Democrats would wind up outside or inside District 1. Based on
demographic data and vote tabulations from the 2018 Democratic primary, Liu first found that Black Democrats were
moved out of District 1 disproportionately to White Democrats. Whereas 26% of Black Democrats in the district were
excluded, only 19% of White Democrats were; so the rate at
which Black Democrats were excluded was more than onethird higher. See J. S. A. Supp. 94a. And then Liu sliced
his data another way, which confirmed his results. Replicating a methodology that this Court approved in Cooper,
see 581 U. S., at 315, Liu looked at Democratic voters in all
the counties that at least partly overlapped with District 1.
Which of those voters, Liu asked, actually wound up in District 1 and which did not? Once again, the answer showed
a significant racial disproportion. Whereas 69% of White
Democrats in the region were placed in the new District 1,
only 51% of Black Democrats were put there. J. S. A. Supp.
100a.
The majority’s primary objection to Ragusa’s and Liu’s
studies—that they did not “control for contiguity or compactness,” ante, at 23, 27—is woefully misplaced. The gripe
is that the experts assumed “unrealistic[ally]” that any precinct, no matter where located, could be moved. Ante, at 23.
If the experts had thought about geography, the majority
suggests, they might have found that Black Democrats
were disproportionately relocated because they lived in precincts closer to a district boundary. The argument is reprised from Cooper—but (what a surprise) only from the
dissent. See 581 U. S., at 358. And the reason the objection