10 FEDERAL ELECTION COMM’N v. TED CRUZ FOR SENATE KAGAN, J., dissenting even when their amounts are too small to trigger Section 304’s restrictions. See Ovtchinnikov, Self-Funding 11; see also Brief for Campaign Legal Center et al. as Amici Curiae 12–13 (summarizing research “show[ing] that most campaigns fail to pay off candidates’ personal loans in any amount at any time,” in confirmation of the “[c]onventional wisdom” that post-election fundraising is “notoriously difficult”). So a candidate with a loan outstanding has plenty of reason to feel anxious—and to see the loan’s repayment as a gratitude-inducing personal benefit. The donor takes him off a sharp hook. And even a candidate who expects repayment is far from impervious to corruption. He may have that confidence exactly because he knows that a raft of lobbyists will be eager to pay for political benefits. And with his bank account depleted, he has a great temptation to perform his part in such an exchange.2 The common sense of Section 304—the obviousness of the theory behind it—lessens the need for the Government to identify past cases of quid pro quo corruption involving candidate loan repayments. As this Court has made clear, “[t]he quantum of empirical evidence needed” to sustain a campaign finance law “var[ies] up or down with the novelty and plausibility of the [law’s] justification.” McConnell v. Federal Election Comm’n, 540 U. S. 93, 144 (2003). There —————— 2 The majority also fails to recognize that post-election contributions can go toward interest payments, enabling a candidate to turn a tidy profit on top of recovering the amount loaned. Consider the case of one member of the U. S. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. She loaned her campaign $150,000 at an 18% interest rate (no, that is not a typo), and over time collected more than $200,000 in interest payments. Much of that money came from fundraising events hosted by a lobbying firm representing members of the transportation industry. See A. Zajac, Interest on Campaign Loan Pays, L. A. Times, Feb. 14, 2009, p. B1. The example is extreme, but the FEC typically allows candidates to charge their campaigns—which then tap contributors for—a commercially reasonable rate of interest. See FEC, Campaign Guide for Congressional Candidates and Committees 101 (2021).