Kiefel
CJ
Bell
J
Keane
J
Nettle
J
Gordon
J
Edelman J
11.
33
The studies recorded in two of those articles related to electoral systems
markedly different from the system of compulsory preferential voting, and
parliamentary elections, prescribed by the Electoral Act in Australia, with the
systems under consideration including such features as non-compulsory voting,
national presidential elections, "sequential" voting over a period of weeks and
months, and voting on weekdays. The third article considered the effect of
election polls on party support in the abstract.
34
The studies did not address the effect, if any, of an action similar to that of
the publication of the TCP Information. The studies did not address a situation
where the TCP Information relates to candidates in a given Division, and is
released after the close of polls in that Division, but the claimed effect on voting
is said to occur in other Divisions, where the polls remain open.
35
Thus, the studies do not establish that the action of the Commission in
making public the result of a predictive exercise intended to assist with counting,
or even a count based on that exercise, had an effect similar to, for example,
opinion or exit polls on voters who had not yet voted. Even then, the views
expressed by the authors of these studies do not all point towards conclusions of
the kind the plaintiffs put as the foundation for their arguments 34. In particular,
it was said in one study that no significant effect on turnout was identifiable in
parliamentary elections, as opposed to presidential elections35.
36
Thus, there was nothing to support any finding that the publication of the
TCP Information by the Commission prior to the polls closing across the nation
distorted the voting system in any relevant way.
34
See Morton and Williams, "Information Asymmetries and Simultaneous versus
Sequential Voting" (1999) 93 American Political Science Review 51 at 64;
Morton et al, "Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural
experiment" (2015) 77 European Economic Review 65 at 71; Dahlgaard et al,
"Research Note: How Election Polls Shape Voting Behaviour" (2017) 40
Scandinavian Political Studies 330 at 333, 339.
35
Morton et al, "Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural
experiment" (2015) 77 European Economic Review 65 at 71.
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