22
ALEXANDER v. SOUTH CAROLINA STATE CONFERENCE
OF THE NAACP
KAGAN, J., dissenting
single best thing Roberts and his staff could do to increase
the future Republican vote in District 1 was to exclude a
Black voter. That fact would not have meant they looked
at racial data alone; they also had the 2020 election data on
their computers. But the racial data offered a potent tool
for ensuring that District 1 would vote for a Republican in
coming elections. 6
And strong evidence showed, as the District Court found,
that the mapmakers wielded this tool—that they used their
racial data to meet the BVAP level needed to achieve their
partisan goal. Recall the large turnover of voters in District
1. See supra, at 15. Some 53,000 people were moved into,
and 140,000 people were moved out of, the district (which
wound up with 730,000 total). Yet the district’s racial balance did not budge. The district began with a 16.6% BVAP.
See J. S. A. 430a. That number went up with the 53,000person addition, because almost 40% of the new residents
were Black. See id., at 439a. So what did the mapmakers
do? As noted earlier, they removed from District 1 over 60%
of Black Charleston County residents, by excising a part of
the county more than twice as Black (23.8%) as the part
they kept in (10.3%). See 649 F. Supp. 3d, at 189–190;
Supp. App. 153a; supra, at 16. That brought the district’s
BVAP right back down to 16.7%—again below the 17% required to create the desired Republican tilt. See J. S. A.
452a; 649 F. Supp. 3d, at 188. In the majority’s description,
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6 In arguing to the contrary—that the political data was superior to,
and would have removed any incentive to use, racial data—the majority
emphasizes that only the political data “accounted for voter turnout.”
Ante, at 18, and n. 7, 33. But as one of the Challengers’ experts explained, that fact is a double-edged sword, because turnout in presidential elections is highly unrepresentative of turnout in off-year ones. See
App. 135. And still more important, the mapmakers did not have to
make a choice between using political data alone and racial data alone.
They could get whatever turnout (or other) information the political data
provided even as they used the racial data as an especially reliable and
accurate measure of individual voting behavior.