Cite as: 585 U. S. ____ (2018)
33
Opinion of the Court
A
To make out a §2 “effects” claim, a plaintiff must establish the three so-called “Gingles factors.” These are (1) a
geographically compact minority population sufficient to
constitute a majority in a single-member district, (2) political cohesion among the members of the minority group,
and (3) bloc voting by the majority to defeat the minority’s
preferred candidate. Gingles, 478 U. S., at 48–51; LULAC,
548 U. S., at 425. If a plaintiff makes that showing, it
must then go on to prove that, under the totality of the
circumstances, the district lines dilute the votes of the
members of the minority group. Id., at 425–426.
1
The Texas court held that CD27 violates §2 of the VRA
because it has the effect of diluting the votes of Latino
voters in Nueces County. C. J. S. 191a. CD27 is anchored
in Nueces County (home to Corpus Christi) and follows the
Gulf of Mexico to the northeast before taking a turn inland
to the northwest in the direction of Austin. Nueces County
contains a Latino population of roughly 200,000 (a little
less than one-third the size of an ideal Texas congressional
district), and the court held that the Nueces County Latinos should have been included in a Latino opportunity
district, rather than CD27, which is not such a district.
The court found that an area centered on Nueces County
satisfies the Gingles factors and that, under the totality of
the circumstances, the placement of the Nueces County
Latinos in CD27 deprives them of the equal opportunity to
elect candidates of their choice. C. J. S. 181a–195a.
The problem with this holding is that plaintiffs could
not establish a violation of §2 of the VRA without showing
that there is a “ ‘possibility of creating more than the
existing number of reasonably compact’ ” opportunity
districts. LULAC, supra, at 430. And as the Texas court
itself found, the geography and demographics of south and
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