Cite as: 596 U. S. ____ (2022)
15
Opinion of the Court
to these requirements. See post, at 3, 14–15. And the requirements are themselves prophylactic measures, given
that “few if any contributions to candidates will involve
quid pro quo arrangements.” Citizens United, 558 U. S., at
357. Such a prophylaxis-upon-prophylaxis approach, we
have explained, is a significant indicator that the regulation
may not be necessary for the interest it seeks to protect. See
McCutcheon, 572 U. S., at 221; see also Bennett, 564 U. S.,
at 752 (“In the face of [the State’s] contribution limits [and]
strict disclosure requirements . . . it is hard to imagine what
marginal corruption deterrence could be generated by [an
additional measure].”).
There is no cause for a different conclusion here. Because
the Government is defending a restriction on speech as necessary to prevent an anticipated harm, it must do more
than “simply posit the existence of the disease sought to be
cured.” Colorado Republican Federal Campaign Comm. v.
Federal Election Comm’n, 518 U. S. 604, 618 (1996). It
must instead point to “record evidence or legislative findings” demonstrating the need to address a special problem.
Ibid. We have “never accepted mere conjecture as adequate
to carry a First Amendment burden.” McCutcheon, 572
U. S., at 210 (quoting Nixon v. Shrink Missouri Government
PAC, 528 U. S. 377, 392 (2000)).
Yet the Government is unable to identify a single case of
quid pro quo corruption in this context—even though most
States do not impose a limit on the use of post-election contributions to repay candidate loans. Cf. Brief for Campaign
Legal Center et al. as Amici Curiae 17–18 (citing the 10
States that do impose such a prohibition). Our previous
cases have found the absence of such evidence significant.
See Citizens United, 558 U. S., at 357 (the Government did
not claim that the political process was corrupted in the 26
States that allowed unrestricted independent expenditures
by corporations); McCutcheon, 572 U. S., at 209, n. 7 (the
Government presented no evidence of corruption in the 30